Arn Does Euro 2024 Day 14 

 

ROUND OF 16 ROUND UP  

 

Ok, so, I missed a day. It’s one of those things. I went into the office to get some work done and then my wife met me outside and we went for a walk. I got home after the Netherlands game kicked off. So, I couldn’t exactly post predictions when the game was already underway. For what it’s worth, I had Netherlands and Austria to win. Both in normal time. My logic for doing so was largely how the games panned out. Romania just didn’t have enough quality to beat a bigger team and Austria did play Turkey off the park, but they lost. It’s football. It happens.  

 

FRANCE 1 BELGIUM 0 

This was the only R16 game I had going to extra time. That didn’t happen but we came very close. A very late winner from Randal Kolo Muani, in off a huge deflection from Jan Vertongen, settled it. It was a close game, but Belgium never looked like winning it. If one team was winning it was France. Belgium’s best player, and biggest threat, was Jeremy Doku. He caused continued issues by running at Jules Kounde. Teams take note; running at defenders has been the best offensive weapon in the entire tournament.  

 

Defensively is where France looked most outstanding. Saliba and Upamecano were both rock solid and Theo Hernandez pulled off an unreal block tackle to stop a certain goal. I’ve noticed the difference, at this level, seems to be that real quality strikers hit it first time and everyone who takes a touch ends up in the mud. Tchouameni and Mbappe were both good and France still haven’t gotten out of second gear. I still don’t think Mbappe has the support players around him to fuck up the big boys but France are capable of beating teams by just playing a little better than them. Conserving energy.  

 

PORTUGAL 0 SLOVENIA 0 

Oh, Cristiano Ronaldo. What a fucking embarrassing performance this was. Every time Portugal got the ball he’s all “I’M OPEN, I’M OPEN” and then fucked it up. He sent almost every free kick off target and he missed a penalty. And cried about it. Grow up. He wasn’t upset because Portugal might not win. He was upset he’d not scored in six tournaments. It’s all about personal glory for this cunt. He was the worst player on the pitch. I was annoyed he got redemption in the shoot out because he didn’t deserve it at all. Go back to stat padding in the Saudi league, mate, nobody gives a shit about you anymore. Fuck off!  

 

Slovenia were really unlucky. Although, if Ronaldo had made way, Portugal would have an extra player and should have won comfortably. Slovenia’s defensive wall of 4-4-2 was effective and hard to break down. They defended admirably and took one of the best squads in the tournament to a penalty shoot out. Lots to be proud of. Oblak and Bijol were the two best players on the pitch.  

 

In Portugal’s defence, Slovenia rarely looked like scoring (apart from that very late Sesko breakaway, I was on my feet screaming). That was after Pepe was out on his feet. Dias, Cancelo and especially Mendes were great. Mendes and Cancelo also contributed going forwards. Unless Ronaldo is out of the team, it’s hard to tell how good the team is. He’s just out there in the way.  

 

ROMANIA 0 NETHERLANDS 3  

I missed the opening goal thanks to iPlayer failing in the car. I did see most of the game though and the Netherlands struggled initially with Romania worrying their defence. It’s not as strong as people make out and both van Dijk and de Vrij have looked shaky and don’t seem capable of playing together. Under pressure, van Dijk crumbled.  

 

Going forwards the Dutch were devastating though. Cody Gakpo played a fantastic game from the left and just ran at the defence all night. They couldn’t cope with him. The first two goals were all Gakpo. Simons played well and the Dutch midfield was ok for once. Reijnders had his best game of the tournament, by some distance. It was a huge performance by the Netherlands but that opening 15:00 would be a concern. They can be gotten to.  

 

If you look at the stats, they just blew Romania away. What a performance all round. The passing, the running, the speed they did everything. Just an excellent performance. Due to Romania being the kind of team that tires during a game, I don’t think it’s a blowaway good performance but it’s the best the Dutch have looked in Euro 2024. Players who’ve looked dreadful in previous games (Malen in particular) looked great here. Schouten and even Depay played well. Bergwijn looked good. I know it’s only Romania, but this was a proper team performance from a side that’s not looked good so far in the tournament.  

 

AUSTRIA 1 TURKEY 2  

This did play out as expected, in many ways. Firstly, Austria weren’t good at the back and have looked like conceding in every game. Secondly, they dominated the game with aggressive, high tempo, gegenpressing. However, where Austria were expected to beat Turkey was with Turkey’s inconsistency among their forward players. It was actually Austria who were inconsistent up top. Arnautovic was awful. Baumgartner tried hard but had his worst game of the tournament. Schmid was bad. Sabitzer couldn’t influence the game. Lienhart, at the back, fell into some stupid fouls. Seiwald was anonymous.  

 

It wasn’t the killer Austria performance we wanted. Turkey, at the back, were fantastic. Gunok had great distribution and made an unbelievable save at the death. Kadioglu was sensational from left back. Demiral has made my team of the round, thanks to his desperation defending but also bagging both goals from set pieces. Bardakci was also great defensively. It was a cracking defensive operation. Aided by poor Austrian choices around the box.  

 

If you look at the stats; Austria had a 2.73 xG and should have, at least, drawn the game. 21 shots on goal but only 5 on target tells a big story. Turkey’s star man, Demiral aside, was Arda Guler who, for his age, had a sensational game. He took over the playmaker role from Calhanoglu and created so much. He was helped by a lot of running on the flanks. Yilmaz and Yildiz were full of running and if they’d made better decisions, Turkey could have won by more.  

 

I feel bad for Baumgartner, Laimer, Posch, Prass etc. They’ve been warriors in this tournament and have been one of the stand-out sides. Bowing out here feels unfair but that’s football. If you don’t take your chances, you can’t win.  

 

Team of the Tournament (R16) 

GK: Oblak  

RB: Cancelo  

LB: Hernandez  

CB: Akanji 

CB: Demiral  

MF: Xhaka 

MF: Ruiz 

MF: Rodri 

LW: Gakpo 

RW: Yamal 

ST: Mbappe  

 

NEXT: 

 

SPAIN vs. GERMANY 

This could, and probably should, be the final of Euro 2024. The two teams who’ve looked the best so far, colliding in the QFs feels wrong. The possibility of, potentially, neither of these teams making the final is criminal. Germany and Spain have similar strengths. A dependable defence with full backs prepared to attack. A midfield with sparkling passing talent and creativity. Wingers with scary pace and skill. And finally, neither team has a world class striker.  

 

Centre forward could be the position that decides this clash. Which one would you rather have? Both miss a lot of chances, but Havertz works harder when he’s not on the ball. Will his movement create space for Gundogan, Musiala and Wirtz? They also have a better option off the bench in Fullkrug. I picked Germany to win the entire tournament so naturally, I want to stick with that but now I’ve seen Spain in four games, they’re clearly the best side.  

 

In knock out football, it’s not always the best team that wins. I think this will start fiesty and there will be early chances at both ends and then they’ll cancel each other out. I see it going the distance and Germany will progress on penalties. Prediction: 1-1 (as it was at the World Cup in 2022) 

 

PORTUGAL vs. FRANCE 

This is also a battle of the centre forwards. If a spineless Roberto Martinez repeats his actions agaisnt Slovenia, then Ronaldo stays out there for 90 minutes wasting everyone’s time, before blubbing because Dayot Upamecano is better than any central defender in the Saudi league.  

 

At the other end, Kylian Mbappe, is potentially a game changer on his own. Portugal has better support players for their front man but that lack of attacking wedge through the centre will cost them. This will be tight, again, but I have France edging it. Prediction: 0-1 

 

ENGLAND vs. SWITZERLAND 

England have been shit for four games. They keep pretending everything is ok and they’ll turn in a good performance, eventually. While past tournaments do suggest Southgate’s England tend to fluke at least one big performance, they could win this 4-0. Especially as Switzerland never get results against England. England have won 17 of their last 24 meetings.  

 

That said, England look like they’re sleepwalking into another Iceland or another (name your embarrassment from past tournaments). The team isn’t clicking together, at all, and Southgate is intent at fielding the same team in the same formation. Switzerland will know exactly how England will line up and it shouldn’t be hard to figure them out.  

 

Switzerland made Swiss cheese of Italy’s normally solid defence last time out and blew the former champions out of the water. They looked way better than England did and had the benefit of having to employ less effort to coast past Italy than England did taking 120 minutes to struggle past Slovakia. I’m backing the fresher Swiss team to take England apart like they did Italy. Especially with England’s best defender in this tournament, Marc Guehi, sidelined thanks to suspension. Prediction: 0-2  

 

NETHERLANDS vs. TURKEY  

Netherlands were hopeless until the knock out stages but a convincing win over Romania has changed some people’s opinions of them. They’re clearly hitting form at the right time and have been gifted a surprisingly easy route to the final. I can totally see the Dutch in the final, on the wrong end of a 5-0 scoreline, as they finally run into a good opponent.  

 

Turkey are lucky to still be in. They needed a rear guard action to survive the onslaught of Austria. Before that they barely squeaked out of the group and the only time they’ve played a strong team they got scuntered 3-0 by Portugal. Austria should have knocked them out. They’ve no chance of going any further. Although, if they’re looking for hope their last competitive game against Netherlands ended 6-1. Oh wait, no, that’s really bad isn’t it. Ok, if they’re looking for good news, their last game against Austria was ALSO 6-1. And they won against them. Lightning doesn’t strike twice, lads. Prediction: 3-0